KMD Warns of Continued Rain, Cold Spell Across Rift Valley (July 22‑28)

When Kenya Meteorological Department released its seven‑day outlook on Tuesday, July 22 2025, it warned that rain, cold and cloudy skies will linger across the highlands and Rift Valley. The forecast, detailed by journalist Janeffer Katila, covers Tuesday, July 22 through Tuesday, July 28 and targets twenty‑one counties from Kakamega to Narok. Farmers, disaster responders and commuters are urged to brace for morning sunshine that can turn into afternoon thunderstorms, according to the department’s analysis.

Forecast Overview: What to Expect

The KMD’s outlook breaks the week into three daily windows. Mornings will start with intermittent sunshine, especially over the Lake Victoria Basin, but light rain showers may pepper the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley. By early afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are likely to roll across Nandi, Bungoma and parts of the Central Rift Valley, with a chance of the storms spreading to neighboring counties. Nights will see scattered showers, mainly over the south‑eastern lowlands.

• July 22‑23: Light rain in Kakamega and Vihiga, temperatures 14‑18 °C.
• July 24‑25: Increased cloud cover in Nakuru and Kericho, afternoon thunderstorms expected.
• July 26‑28: Cooler nights across Kisii, Bomet and West Pokot, with occasional hail in the Central Rift Valley.

Regional Breakdown: Counties Most Affected

The forecast specifically names the following counties: Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo‑Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok. In the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the department expects a mix of sunny intervals and brief showers, while the Highlands East may see more sustained cloud cover.

For example, rainfall totals in Kakamega’s Iranda Rainfall Station peaked at 112.2 mm during the previous week (July 14‑20), making it the wettest station nationwide. Meanwhile, Eldoret’s meteorological station logged a 24‑hour high of 69.8 mm on July 20, underscoring the region’s vulnerability to sudden downpours.

Recent Rainfall Data: A Quick Look Back

Comparing the two weeks preceding the outlook (July 7‑13 vs. July 14‑20), KMD data shows a noticeable dip in rainfall across most of the country, except for pockets in the Lake Victoria Basin where showers persisted. The earlier period recorded an average of 48 mm per county, while the later week dropped to 33 mm overall, despite the record‑high figures in Kakamega and Eldoret.

These fluctuations matter because they affect planting schedules. Smallholder farmers in the Central Rift Valley, who rely on timed rains for maize and beans, are now advised to sow early‑season crops during the cooler, cloudy days forecast for early August.

Expert Reactions: Voices from KMD and Beyond

"Early warning systems save lives only when they reach everyone, including the most vulnerable," said Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department. "We remain committed to providing accurate and timely climate services that support communities to plan, adapt, and build resilience."

Regional cooperation also features in the narrative. Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of the Inter‑Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), warned, "The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action."

From the policy side, Deborah M. Barasa, Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, added, "Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach. Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities."

Implications for Agriculture and Communities

The outlook paints a mixed picture for agriculture. In the Central and South Rift Valley, cooler temperatures and cloud cover could actually benefit coffee and tea farms by reducing evapotranspiration stress. However, the threat of hailstorms—particularly in Nakuru and Baringo—poses a risk to high‑value crops. Local cooperatives have already begun distributing hail‑resistant netting to vulnerable growers.

Urban dwellers in Nairobi, where the department’s headquarters sit at Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, should expect cooler evenings and occasional drizzle, potentially disrupting traffic and outdoor events. The KMD’s contact line (+254 20 3867880‑5) remains open for real‑time updates.

Looking Ahead: August Outlook and Beyond

Looking past July, the Climate Outlook dated July 30 predicts intermittent cool and cloudy conditions with light morning rains persisting into early August, especially over the Highlands East. The report also flags a “favourable window” for planting winter crops in the Central Rift Valley, provided farmers heed the hail warnings.

In sum, the week of July 22‑28 is a transition period. While rain will ease compared to the previous surge, the persistence of cold, cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms means communities must stay alert, especially those dependent on rain‑fed agriculture.

Frequently Asked Questions

How will the forecast affect smallholder farmers in the Central Rift Valley?

The cooler, cloudy conditions forecast for early August create a favourable window for planting winter crops such as beans and wheat. However, farmers must watch for hailstorms in Nakuru and Baringo, which could damage seedlings. Extension services are distributing hail‑resistant netting and advising staggered planting dates to mitigate risk.

What regions are likely to see the heaviest rainfall this week?

Kakamega’s Iranda Rainfall Station recorded the highest seven‑day total of 112.2 mm during the previous week, and Eldoret logged 69.8 mm in a single day on July 20. This week, the Highlands West—especially Kakamega, Vihiga and Bungoma—are expected to receive the most persistent showers, with isolated thunderstorms spreading to the surrounding counties.

Will Nairobi experience any significant weather changes?

Nairobi can expect cooler evenings and occasional drizzle, particularly on July 24‑26. While the city will not see the heavy rains forecast for the highland counties, commuters should anticipate slippery roads and possible delays during the afternoon thunderstorm windows.

What measures is the Kenya Meteorological Department taking to improve early warnings?

Acting Director Edward Muriuki highlighted that KMD is strengthening its SMS and community radio networks to reach remote villages. The department is also upgrading its radar systems and collaborating with IGAD to harmonise climate data across the Horn of Africa, ensuring that warnings are both timely and locally relevant.

How reliable are the current forecasts compared to previous weeks?

KMD’s forecasts are based on sea‑surface temperature analyses and sophisticated atmospheric circulation models. Compared to the July 7‑13 period, the department notes a higher confidence level for this week due to improved satellite data, which explains the detailed county‑by‑county breakdown now being provided.