Macron loses his government as Bayrou’s budget gamble backfires
France woke up to a power vacuum after Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly by 364–194, a crushing defeat that instantly brought down his nine‑month‑old government. It’s the fourth time in a year President Emmanuel Macron has to find a new prime minister, and this time the fall came over a single, brutal question: how fast to cut France’s deficit.
Bayrou, a 74‑year‑old centrist and longtime Macron ally, asked lawmakers to back his plan to rein in the budget. He promised €40 billion in savings and to push the annual deficit below 3% of GDP by 2029. He also backed a move that angered workers across the country: eliminating two public holidays without wage compensation. Instead of rallying support, the plan united opponents from the left, the right, and the far right, who used the confidence vote to topple a minority government they never accepted.
The scale of the rejection matters. In a 577‑seat chamber, Bayrou’s defeat by a 170‑vote margin shows how isolated Macron’s camp has become. The president’s bloc has been short of a majority for more than two years, and repeated attempts to govern through ad‑hoc alliances have run out of road. After previous failed experiments under Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier, Bayrou’s exit deepens the sense that Macron’s second term is boxed in by an Assembly he can’t control.
Bayrou’s allies argue he told hard truths about public finances that others have dodged. France’s debt is high and its deficit stubborn. In 2024, S&P Global cut France’s rating to AA‑, citing weak deficit reduction, while EU rules requiring countries to bring deficits below 3% of GDP are back in force with a new framework. Brussels is set to press Paris for a credible path to savings, making this fight more than a domestic quarrel.
But politics runs on timing and trust. Bayrou called the confidence vote himself two weeks ago, betting clarity would help him. Instead, it gave opponents a date to circle on their calendars. Unions warned they would resist moves to lengthen working time by stealth. Employers liked the deficit focus but worried about the political chaos. That left Bayrou squeezed: too tough for the left and too weak for the right, with little to offer either camp beyond austerity.
The collapse comes with France juggling crises abroad and at home. The war in Ukraine is grinding on. Fighting in Gaza still drives tensions across Europe. In Washington, President Donald Trump’s return has shifted US priorities, forcing European capitals to plan for more self‑reliance on defense and energy. Paris can’t afford drift, yet the domestic paralysis just deepened.
What happens next: options, risks, and the economic stakes
Under France’s Constitution, the prime minister must submit a resignation after losing a confidence vote. That triggers a familiar routine: the president accepts the resignation and names a replacement. In the meantime, Bayrou and his ministers stay on in a caretaker role to handle day‑to‑day affairs.
Macron’s options are narrow and none are easy:
- Appoint a new prime minister from his centrist camp and try again for cross‑party deals bill by bill. That’s the least disruptive path, but the vote tally shows how hard those deals will be.
- Seek a broader coalition or a “government of national unity” around a short list of budget and security priorities. That would require concessions on policy and personnel that Macron has resisted so far.
- Install a technocratic caretaker to write a compromise budget and stabilize markets, then revisit politics later. The risk: no technocrat can pass laws without political backing.
- Dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections—if constitutional timing allows. The president cannot dissolve within a year of a previous dissolution, so the calendar matters. Even if allowed, polls suggest a fragmented chamber would likely return.
The budget is the immediate test. France needs to submit a plan that satisfies EU fiscal rules while not choking a shaky economy. Growth has been flat, inflation pressures have eased but not vanished, and households remain sensitive to energy and food prices. Cutting too hard could stall demand; cutting too little could trigger a showdown with Brussels and spook investors.
Markets will watch the spread between French government bonds and German Bunds as a quick stress gauge. If investors decide Paris can’t pass a credible consolidation plan, that gap tends to widen, increasing borrowing costs. The euro, French bank shares, and utilities—heavy users of state guarantees—will also be in the spotlight. France is too big to ignore, and ratings agencies have already flagged the slow pace of deficit repair.
On the streets, expect noise. Memories of the 2023 pension reform, which raised the legal retirement age to 64, are still fresh. Unions that fought that law have found a new target in proposals to claw back public holidays. Any attempt to cut public services, freeze hiring, or curb benefits could draw protests. For the left, this is about protecting the social model; for the right and far right, it’s about punishing an elite that, they say, governs without listening.
Inside parliament, the arithmetic is brutal. Macron’s centrists are stuck between a stronger left and a surging far right. The conservative Republicans have leverage but are split on how far to go with the president. The Greens and Socialists want investment in climate and public services, not broad cuts. The far‑left wants a break with EU budget rules. The National Rally wants elections and harsher lines on immigration and order. None of these blocs wants to hand Macron an easy win.
Choosing a new prime minister will be less about charisma and more about math. The successful candidate needs enough credibility to craft a deal across blocs, but also enough flexibility to water down the most contentious parts of the savings plan. Names will circulate, but what matters is whether any nominee can survive the first confidence test and then pass a budget before year‑end.
Foreign policy won’t wait. France plays a central role in EU decisions on Ukraine support, defense industry expansion, and energy security. It also chairs key committees shaping migration and digital regulation. Allies will look for signs that Paris can still commit, fund, and deliver. A caretaker can keep the lights on; only a stable cabinet can strike bargains and stick to them.
For now, the message is simple: the Assembly has asserted itself, loudly. Bayrou misjudged the mood and paid for it. Macron still holds the power to appoint, shape, and, if the clock lets him, dissolve. But his room to maneuver is shrinking. If he can’t build a workable majority around a realistic budget, France risks drifting into a year of stop‑start governing—just when its economy, its allies, and its citizens need clarity.
