Ajax's Shocking Eredivisie Collapse: PSV's 10‑Point Swing Wins the Crown

The Rise and the Fall

Going into matchday 30 of the 2024‑25 season, Ajax were cruising on a nine‑point cushion over rivals PSV Eindhoven. The Opta supercomputer, running ten thousand simulations, gave the Amsterdam side a 99.3% chance of sealing their 37th league crown – a figure that felt almost guaranteed to fans and pundits alike.

Until then, Ajax had been relentless. They had amassed 69 points from 27 games, scored 71 goals and kept a clean sheet in 12 matches. Their attack, led by forward Wout Weghorst, combined with a solidity at the back that made the team look like a well‑oiled machine. Even their recent record against lower‑ranked teams – three wins and a draw – suggested they could easily claim the final five fixtures.

The first crack appeared on a rainy Thursday at FC Utrecht. The home side, who had never before tallied four goals against a full‑strength opponent, ripped Ajax apart 4‑0. It was a humbling defeat that shocked the Dutch press and sent alarm bells ringing in the Ajax camp.

Just three days later, Ajax hosted Sparta Rotterdam, a team fighting near the bottom of the table. The match seemed like a chance to recover, but the game turned into a nail‑biter. Ajax surrendered a goal in the 95th minute, only to equalize two minutes later. The 1‑1 draw left them still winless in the crucial four‑match stretch.

The third blow came at home against NEC Nijmegen, sitting 13th in the league and having won only four of their fifteen away games. In a result that will go down in Eredivisie folklore, NEC produced a stunning 3‑0 victory – the first time they had ever won at Ajax’s Amsterdam Arena.

The final of the four decisive fixtures was a 99th‑minute drama at FC Groningen. Despite Groningen playing with ten men, they managed to level the score in stoppage time. Ajax walked away with a point, but they had lost the lead and handed PSV a path back into the race.

The emotional fallout was palpable. Manager Francesco Farioli was seen walking the sidelines with tears glistening on his cheeks. Young midfielder Kian Fitz‑Jim broke down in the tunnel, while Weghorst snapped pictures of the disappointed crowd. Supporters, many with decades of loyalty, clutched each other in the stands as if sharing a funeral.

PSV's Perfect Response

While Ajax floundered, PSV Eindhoven turned the situation on its head. In the same four‑match window, the Eindhoven side won every game, delivering a seamless 10‑point swing that erased Ajax’s advantage.

PSV’s run looked effortless:

• 5‑0 demolition of Willem II at home, showcasing an attacking trio that fired on all cylinders.
• 2‑1 away victory at FC Utrecht, the very team that had just humbled Ajax.
• 3‑0 win against Vitesse Arnhem, extending their goal difference advantage.
• 3‑1 triumph over Sparta Rotterdam on the final matchday, the same side that had drawn Ajax earlier in the week.

Going into the last round, Ajax needed a win against FC Twente and a slip from PSV. Ajax delivered a 2‑0 victory, ticking the first box. However, PSV’s 3‑1 win in Rotterdam secured the title by a single point, flipping the narrative that just weeks before seemed set in stone.

Statistical historians have flagged the collapse as an outlier. ESPN’s Stats and Information Group reports that no team in the top seven European leagues has surrendered a nine‑point lead with five games left since the 1995‑96 season. The combination of a 99.3% win probability and a total loss of a 10‑point swing makes this event one of the most dramatic reversals in modern football.

For Ajax, the failure was more than a missed trophy; it came in the club’s 125th anniversary year, a season that promised a historic 37th Eredivisie crown. The emotional weight of that missed milestone was felt across the city. Former players, club legends, and local journalists all reflected on the fragility of dominance in a league where every match can shift momentum.

From a broader perspective, the collapse echoes other famous title meltdowns – Liverpool’s 1990‑91 crash after a comfortable lead, or Leeds United’s 2001‑02 slide. Yet, the Ajax story stands out because it broke a modern statistical trend, reminding fans that probability models can predict outcomes, but they cannot stop a team from disappearing on the field.

As the dust settles in Amsterdam, the narrative shifts to rebuilding. Farioli will likely review tactics, squad rotation, and mental resilience, while Ajax’s board faces pressure to make strategic signings before the next season begins. PSV, on the other hand, basks in back‑to‑back titles, reinforcing their place among Dutch football’s elite.

Regardless of who writes the next chapter, the 2024‑25 Eredivisie saga will be remembered for the sheer unpredictability of sport. A nine‑point lead that seemed unbreakable turned into a heartbreak that will linger in the memories of every Ajax supporter who witnessed the storm.